After a daring offensive, Ukraine's grip on Russian territory is slipping. With a renewed Russian push, aided by North Korean troops, the stakes are high – and a U.S. intelligence cutoff may be tipping the balance.

Ukraine's Kursk Gamble: Is Russia About to Force a Costly Retreat?

The clock is ticking for Ukrainian forces in Russia's Kursk region as a resurgent Russian offensive threatens to encircle them, potentially turning a strategic foothold into a major military setback.

Did Ukraine Overplay Its Hand in Kursk?

Last year, Ukraine launched a surprise offensive, seizing a chunk of Russia's Kursk region. The goal? To gain a valuable bargaining chip for future peace negotiations. But now, that gamble may be backfiring.

• August 2024: Ukraine captures "hundreds of square miles" in Russia's Kursk region.
• Hopes: To leverage the territory in peace talks.
• Reality: A protracted and increasingly perilous fight.

The Tide Turns: A North Korean-Backed Offensive

For months, Russia has tried to dislodge Ukrainian forces, facing stiff resistance and heavy casualties. But the situation has dramatically shifted in recent weeks.

• Enter North Korea: Russian forces, bolstered by North Korean troops, have broken through Ukrainian lines.
• The Objective: Cut off Ukraine's crucial supply road into Kursk.
• The Stakes: "Several thousand Ukrainian troops" risk encirclement.

Is a US Intelligence Cutoff Weakening Ukraine's Defense?

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russian forces are "collapsing" Ukrainian lines in northern Kursk. Coincidentally or not, this intensified offensive aligns with a controversial decision by the Trump administration.

• The Cutoff: The U.S. halted intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
• Timing: The Russian offensive "appears to have intensified around the same time" as the cutoff, according to the ISW.
• Ukrainian Concerns: Officials warned that the cutoff would limit their ability to hit forces massing in Kursk, including North Korean soldiers.

"This will help Russians to concentrate their forces... We could have hit them preemptively, but now we can't." - Ukrainian Official to ABC News

The Battle for Sudzha: A City Under Siege

The fight is now centered around Sudzha, the main town controlled by Ukrainian forces in the region.

• Flanking Maneuvers: Russian forces are attempting to cut off supply routes to Sudzha.
• Outskirts Reached: Russian troops have entered Sudzha's industrial zone.
• Withdrawals: Ukrainian units have retreated from parts of their western flank after Russian forces crossed the Psel River.

Is Encirclement Imminent? Conflicting Reports Emerge

While the situation appears dire, Ukrainian officials maintain that the situation is under control.

• Ukraine's Stance: Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander-in-chief, denies the risk of encirclement.
• Journalist's View: Yurii Butusov, a prominent Ukrainian military journalist, confirms a "very difficult" situation but states there is "no threat of Ukrainian troops being encircled."

Kursk as a Bargaining Chip? The Kremlin's Red Line

Russia has intensified its efforts to drive Ukraine out of Kursk amid renewed negotiation efforts to end the three-year war.

• Russia's Position: The Kremlin has "repeatedly signalled it will not start meaningful negotiations with Ukraine as long as it occupies parts of Kursk."
• The Question: Can Ukraine hold onto Kursk, or will it become a costly liability in the pursuit of peace?

A Glimmer of Hope in the East?

Amidst the challenges in Kursk, there are signs of progress on the eastern front in Donbas.

• Stalled Advance: Russia's advance towards Pokrovsk, a key defensive hub, "appears to be stalling out."
• Counterattacks: Ukrainian troops have launched successful counterattacks around Pokrovsk and Toretsk, "recapturing some ground."

While the situation in Kursk remains precarious, these developments in Donbas offer a potential glimmer of hope for Ukraine's overall war effort.