As army chiefs gather in Paris, a "coalition of the willing" emerges to safeguard Ukraine, but can this European-led force truly dissuade future Russian aggression without the U.S.? A deep dive into the plan's complexities, potential, and the crucial questions that remain unanswered.

The Question Hanging Over Paris: How Do We Stop Russia?

As army chiefs from over 30 countries converge in Paris, the stakes are monumental: forging an international force to deter future Russian aggression in Ukraine after a ceasefire. The key questions on Ukraine's mind? Troop size, location, and – most crucially – what military options exist if Russia breaks the peace.

A "Coalition of the Willing": Europe Steps Up

Spearheaded by France and Britain, this initiative aims to rally nations to safeguard Ukraine, creating a reassurance and deterrence force designed to dissuade Russia from further invasion. French President Emmanuel Macron emphasizes that these talks will be held in “close coordination” with NATO, but with a distinct European flavor.

Participants include nearly all 32 NATO countries (sans the United States), Commonwealth nations, and Asian powers like Japan and South Korea. Each nation will be invited to pledge potential military contributions – troops, weapons, or other assistance.

"This meeting is important because it lays the ground for these security guarantees" and how "European armed forces can gain credit and credibility for diplomatic talks which will, unquestionably, extend over the long term." - French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu

Ukraine's Concerns: Beyond a Ceasefire, What Then?

While welcoming the proposal, some Ukrainian officials are wary of any deal lacking clearly defined security guarantees. What happens if Russia violates a future ceasefire? What military response would follow a large-scale offensive, and how swiftly would it materialize?

"Diplomats are discussing, military officials are discussing, but we still don’t have real proposals," said a senior Ukrainian official. The talks "are not in the first stage, we did a lot in the first stage, but we still don’t have a real solid approach.”

President Zelenskyy, while welcoming the proposal, expressed skepticism to The AP in February, stating that foreign troops alone wouldn't suffice and that the plan requires backing from U.S. and European weapons, alongside support for Kyiv's own defense industry.

The Trump Factor: Europe to Take the Lead?

With former President Trump appearing to dismiss U.S. security guarantees, the onus falls on Europe. The Franco-British plan envisions a force equipped with enough military might to deter Russia from attacking again. As a Western official in Kyiv put it: "That is the crux of it."

This force would aim to reassure Ukraine and deter another large-scale Russian offensive after any ceasefire. It could include heavy weaponry and weapons stockpiles ready for rapid deployment to aid Ukraine's defense. Another idea on the table involves direct and immediate strikes on Russian assets in the event of a violation.

How Would This Deterrence Force Work in Practice?

Details have emerged gradually through technical discussions between Western diplomatic and military officials. Key summits have been held to establish common ground, including a summit of European leaders in London and a virtual planning meeting led by the U.K.

France and Britain are now widening their search for nations willing to back the plan and provide the force with teeth. The Paris talks include not just NATO and EU nations but also Asian and Oceania countries like Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea. Turkey, with its robust military, and Canada will also be represented.

Why No U.S. Invitation? European nations want to demonstrate their ability to shoulder a significant part of safeguarding Ukraine after a truce.

Contours of the Plan: Troops, Technology, and Air Power

Early discussions suggested a small, Europe-dominated "reassurance force" of fewer than 30,000 troops, rather than a large peacekeeping army along the front line. Troops would be stationed away from the front line at key infrastructure sites like nuclear power plants, supported by Western air and sea power.

• The front line would be monitored remotely via drones and other technology.
• Air power, potentially including U.S. assets based outside Ukraine (e.g., Poland or Romania), would be in reserve to deter breaches and reopen Ukrainian airspace.
• Allied navies could clear mines and patrol the Black Sea to ensure safe international waters.

The goal is to "aggregate" the capabilities of willing countries to offer security guarantees, ensuring a "robust and verifiable" peace deal, with the hope of a U.S. backstop.

Cautious Optimism: A Path Forward?

Some Western officials suggest a phased approach to a peace plan, with a broader coalition potentially forming later. A one-month freeze, as proposed by Zelenskyy and European leaders, could serve as a confidence-building measure.

Ukrainian officials express optimism about the "coalition of the willing," acknowledging limited alternatives with NATO off the table.

"I fully believe it’s very possible," said one senior Ukrainian official. "Trump is comfortable with the idea, the idea is very positive for us, and if Europe wants to be a real player, they should do this."

"If they lose this opportunity, we will be in a very difficult situation," he added.