During his campaign, then-candidate Donald Trump made bold promises to voters about fixing the economy "starting on Day 1." Now, just seven weeks into his presidency, the narrative has shifted. Concerns are rising about a potential recession, and Trump himself acknowledges a "period of transition." Is this simply a course correction, or a sign that the promised economic turnaround is facing unexpected headwinds?
"Starting on Day 1, we will end inflation and make America affordable again," Trump declared at a rally in Montana during the 2024 campaign.
He even made a public display of grocery items, vowing to "immediately bring prices down" if elected. The message was clear: economic relief would be swift and decisive under a Trump administration.
However, the tone began to change even before Inauguration Day. In an interview published in December, Trump admitted that bringing down food costs would be "very hard."
Now, facing market reactions to his tariff policies and projections of negative GDP growth, Trump is framing the situation as a "period of transition." He defended his tariffs during his first major speech to Congress, stating:
"There will be a little disturbance, but we're okay with that. It won't be much."
Trump's imposition of tariffs on key U.S. trading partners like Canada, China, and Mexico has sent ripples through the markets. The S&P 500 experienced its worst week since last September amidst the back-and-forth on tariffs.
When questioned about a potential recession on Fox News, Trump responded:
"I hate to predict things like that... There is a period of transition, because what we're doing is very big. We're bringing wealth back to America."
He doubled down on this sentiment while speaking to reporters on Air Force One, suggesting the U.S. would become "so rich, you're not going to know where to spend all that money" due to tariffs.
Despite the market volatility, Trump later amended his answer on recession concerns, stating, "I don’t see it at all. I think this country is going to boom." He maintained that the "hard way" he's pursuing will yield results "20 times greater."
The White House is attempting to frame the market turmoil as a temporary blip. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters:
"We are in a period of economic transition."
She blamed the previous administration for an "economic disaster" and highlighted positive indicators like manufacturing job growth.
With more tariffs on steel and aluminum products being implemented, and "reciprocal" tariffs on the horizon, the coming weeks will be critical. Will Trump's policies ultimately lead to the promised economic boom, or will the "period of transition" turn into a prolonged downturn? The markets, and the American people, are waiting for answers.